The dairy news was mixed to mostly better in the USDA's monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released June 11.
Citing declining cow numbers and slowing growth in milk output per cow, the USDA cut its 2019 milk production forecast. "They are not going to be willing to pay up both for feeder pigs and feeder calves" because the cost grains will be an even bigger problem, he said by phone.
The agency on Tuesday kept its production and yield estimates for soybeans unchanged from last month, surprising analysts who were generally looking for declines. Corn production for 2019-'20 is forecast to decline 1.4 billion bushels to 13.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2015/16. Adding, "We fall back to the law of one price - when you see the cost for one feed ingredient move up the others move up too". The 2019 average cattle price was projected at $117 per cwt, with highest prices already behind us for the year.
Unprecedented planting delays observed through early June are expected to prevent some plantings and reduce yield prospects. The season-average farm price is raised 50 cents to $3.80 per bushel. With supplies falling more than use, ending stocks are projected to decline 810 million bushels to 1.7 billion, which if realized would be the lowest since 2013-'14.
The CBOT's most active soybean contract fell 0.5 percent to $8.51-3/4 a bushel.
USDA left soybean yield unchanged from May at 49.5 bpa and production at 4.15 billion bushel.
The USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.
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