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Homeowners preparing to pay more following interest rate hike

13 July 2018

This is the second rate increase of the year, though many economists think the Bank of Canada will be on hold for the rest of 2018 because of the trade war with the US.

This is the first rate hike in six months and the fourth since last summer.

In addition, "household spending is being dampened by higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending guidelines".

But even with such unknowns, TD chief economist Beata Caranci said she expects Poloz to work with the positive data he has in front of him. -Canada trade dispute would figure prominently in the bank's decision-making process for today's rate announcement.

The bank's key rate is directly linked to variable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit.

The tariff fight is expected to shave two-thirds of a percentage from Canada's economic growth by the end of 2020, the bank estimated.

"At a quarter point it's not going to change a lot right now, but the Bank of Canada does anticipate to have to continue to raise rates in the future to keep inflation in check, so that's something to be mindful of", said Philip Herner, financial advisor with Assante Capital Management Ltd. The bank had been criticized for a surprise rate hike last September.

The bank said USA steel and aluminum tariffs imposed in June and retaliatory countermeasures by Canada in July would trim exports, imports and economic growth, and boost inflation, but strong global demand and higher commodity prices were offsetting the tariff headwind.

The Bank of Canada's quarterly update predicts the economy will show growth in 2019 and 2020, a better outlook than what was forecast in April.

Poloz stressed the bank will continue with its gradual, data-dependent approach as it moves towards its neutral rate, which his team has pegged between 2.5 and 3.5 per cent.

"My experience having come from Ireland five years ago is I've experienced recession and I've experienced interest hikes before so I'm cautious at this stage", said van Dijk.

Homeowners preparing to pay more following interest rate hike