This forecast comes with a model error of plus or minus 5%. Probability of normal to excess rains is 56% and that of below normal and deficit rain is 44%.
Skymet said the monsoon this year could be 100 percent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus and minus 5 percent.
In 2017, while IMD predicted 96 per cent average rainfall in its first forecast in April, the Monsoon season over the country as a whole was 97 per cent of its LPA.
The IMD, however, will forecast the onset of monsoon in middle of next month.
Rainfall below 90 per cent of the average is considered deficient, above normal at 105-110 per cent, and excessive above 110 per cent.
As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans particularly ENSO conditions over the Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian oceans.
The IMD, meanwhile, said it would be able to forecast a clearer picture of the Monsoon, which normally extends from June 1 to September 30, only in June. Last year, rainfall was close to normal at 95% of the LPA, while in 2016 rains were recorded at 97% of LPA. India had faced deficient rains during monsoon season in 2015 and 2014, making both these years drought years.
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